Thursday, December 27, 2007

Ask Og - How Many Scans Does Auctioneer Need For Me To Trust It's Recommendations?

Got this question from a comment on one of my posts for just getting started with flipping. As I was writing the response it dawned on me that others might be interested in the answer as well (I'm thinking pretty highly of myself right now - don't worry, this won't last long). So how many scans of the Auction House (AH) do you need to do to start trusting Auctioneer's recommendations?

Well, it depends on the item.

First let me clarify that it's not just the number of scans, but the number of scans over different days. So don't go in and just scan 7 times over 30 minutes and feel you're good to go. If you do you are just re-scanning the same auctions and what you want is historical data. Historical data will even out the data which is what you want.

In addition, if you are just starting out, stick with markets you know or kinda-sorta know. That reduces the risk. I'll post something about how to take risks the smart way by learning from my experience ("experience" = "all the times Og's screwed up royally because he thought he knew it all").

For me to feel pretty confident on Auctioneer's recommendations across all auctions I aim for a week's worth of scanning with a scan each day. If you don't play everyday (your willpower impresses me) a minimum of 4 scans on different days.

Now you can start trusting the results for some things off the very first scan. These are items that are high volume and high demand items where the current competition is probably more important than historical ones. These items are...

#2 Silk Cloth (0.08g)
#4 Linen Cloth (0.02g)
#5 Runecloth (0.17g)
#7 Mageweave Cloth (0.18g)
#8 Wool Cloth (0.06g)
#9 Light Leather (0.04g)
** #10 Strange Dust (0.08g)
#12 Knothide Leather (0.50g)
#15 Medium Leather (0.04g)
** #18 Vision Dust (0.38g)
#19 Rugged Leather (0.19g)
#20 Bronze Bar (0.11g)
#23 Copper Ore (0.07g)
** #24 Dream Dust (0.32g)
#25 Adamantite Ore (0.87g)
#26 Earthroot (0.06g)
#28 Thick Leather (0.09g)
#29 Thorium Bar (0.90g)
#30 Copper Bar (0.05g)

The number with the pound (#) sign is the ranking by number of items in all the stacks from a recent snapshot of the Exodar AH. Those items with two asterisks in front of it are enchanting mats, highly volatile and I only recommend it if they are very cheap and in stacks of 20 or less (large quantities don't move quickly). Following the rank is the name of the item followed by a number in parenthesis. That number is the average buyout price per item (not auction) in gold - just remove the decimal point and you have the number of silver. So .05 gold is 5 silver.

I've also bolded those items that you can focus on with very little coin. Now these aren't the only items you can start flipping on with an empty purse, but these are the ones that everyone knows, has the supply/demand and you can just do what Auctioneer suggests.

A side note on averages - I'm not crazy about them because they don't account for the you've-got-to-be-freakin-kidding-me prices we all see in the auction house. Fresh bread for 750 gold...that better be some goooooood bread. However, averages do work pretty well on the high volume items so that's why I decided to use it.

Go flip and prosper.


Anonymous said...

What's #1?

Anonymous said...

On 2nd notice, what were the other missing numbers as well? :)

Og said...

Someone - Good question.

Here's what fell out of the top 30 followed by my reasoning...

#1 Crafted Light Shot (0.00)
#3 Netherweave Cloth (0.17)
#6 Sunfury Signet (0.72)
#11 Mark of Sargeras (0.85)
#13 Knothide Leather Scraps (0.08)
#14 Hi-Impact Mithril Slugs (0.00)
#16 Felweed (0.48)
#17 Terocone (0.65)
#21 Dark Iron Residue (0.03)
#22 Dreaming Glory (0.68)
#27 Fel Iron Ore (0.37)

Items #1 and #14 are tough to make profit on flipping.

#3, #16, #17, #22 and #27 could be included, but these rely on advanced profession and skill levels to use so there aren't as many buyers which is why I didn't include it. I'm aiming for super fast turnaround for first-time flippers. To that end, Thorium Bars could have been excluded from my original list.

#6 and #11 build rep for all those level 70 folk stomping around. These sell well, but sometimes take a few times depending on how many people are on. #21 is much the same, but for level 60+.

#13 I've never sold so I'm not sure the market. I know all those Leather Workers out there can make regular Knothide Leather out of this, but it's not something I've personally flipped.

Let me know if I missed anything.

Sellia said...

Good to know ! =)

Muhr said...

Thanks for the reply, i'll keep you up to date on how I fare ;)